It was two months in the past that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager scolded him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were an indicator or the reason of the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. As the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to address. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, while the wins have accumulated.
Per the data, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a side that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem strangely fragile – however right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their star man to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more shots and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival they have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the football into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. When the hero faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
